Rainfall estimation for the analysis of the capacity of normal operation of snow forest belts

Based on the actual materials of meteorological observations for a 62-year period (from 1959 to 2021), the nature and dynamics of precipitation falling in the cold months of the year (from November to March) were studied. It is established that the dynamics of the amount of precipitation of the cold period by year is characterized by cyclicity. There is an alternation of periods with trends of increasing and decreasing precipitation. During the study period, the maximum precipitation of these months was 230 mm (1999–2000), and the minimum – 60 mm (1987–1988). Despite the cyclical change in the amount of precipitation, there is a tendency to progressively increase this indicator from the beginning to the end of observations. Moreover, the increase in November and March precipitation is the most pronounced. Precipitation of other months also increases, but to a lesser extent. Thus, in modern conditions of climate change, the cold period of the year becomes not only warmer, but also snowy. The minimum, maximum and average values of the amount of precipitation vary significantly by month. During the study period, the largest amount of precipitation falls in November (on average 33.7 mm), and the smallest – in February (20.9 mm). The amount of precipitation of a single month during the study period is characterized by high variability. The greatest variation in precipitation over the past 62 years is typical for March (63.9%), and the smallest – for December (46.2%). The distribution series of monthly precipitation (from November to March) of the 62-year period are characterized by positive asymmetry and, in most cases, positive excess. The Weibull function is the most universal for describing empirical series of precipitation distribution by year. It can be used to develop predictive models for estimating the volume and dynamics of the incoming part of the precipitation of the cold period of the year. Such models are relevant for developing the right strategy for the creation, formation and operation of a PO.

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