Forest-climatic project on forest fire control: problems of justification, carbon efficiency, risks and uncertainties (on the example of the Krasnoyarsk region)

Forest fires are one of the main processes, both natural and anthropogenic, leading to large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Forest fires lead to the complete or partial destruction of forest ecosystems. At the same time, there is a decrease in their absorption capacity, as well as greenhouse gas emissions due to the combustion of organic matter in the main pools of forest ecosystems. Forest fire protection activities can be one of the types of forest-climatic projects (FCP) within the framework of forest relations. In the process of implementing the FCP, a set of measures is being carried out aimed at preventing the occurrence of fires in forests, limiting their spread, reducing fire danger, increasing forest fire resistance and timely detection and extinguishing of forest fires. The article discusses the issues of determining the basic and design lines in the justification of the paintwork, two methods for quantifying the amount of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the fight against forest fires. The first method is presented in the methodological guidelines approved by the decree of the Ministry of Natural resources and ecology of Russian Federation No. 371 dated 05/27/2022 and presented in the methodology for the implementation of climate project No. 0011 «Improved forestry management, including protection of forests from fires.» The second method is presented in the international standard VCS VM0015 «Methodology for preventing unplanned deforestation». The baseline was justified using the method of historical average changes. For this purpose, statistical data on the area of forest fires for the period from 2007 to 2022 were used. The forest climate project considers two scenarios for reducing the area of forest fires, by 30% and by 50% of the average annual area. The scenarios also take into account the need to reduce the area of forest fires in accordance with the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation on June 15, 2022. An assessment of the uncertainties and risks of the FCP was carried out. The results of the study provide quantitative estimates of the amount of possible reduction in greenhouse gas emissions as a result of forest fire control using two methods that have yielded different results. The carbon efficiency of the project was evaluated and the results obtained were compared with other estimates available in the scientific literature.

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