Multivariant Scenarios for the Dynamics of Forest Use in the Arkhangelsk Region
https://doi.org/10.21266/2079-4304.2023.246.191-205
Abstract
Forecast calculations of the use and reproduction of forests, implemented in the form of various, most probable and promising scenarios, are necessary for strategic planning of forestry sector development at the regional level. In this study, scientifically based parameters of forest use volume for the long term, comparable to the felling turnover in coniferous stands in the forests of the Arkhangelsk region, were obtained. The paper presents an analysis of scenarios modeling for the Arkhangelsk region forests using the model developed by scientists from the Northern Research Institute of Forestry (author N.P. Chuprov), classical options for calculating allowable cutting volumes carried out during performing forest inventory. The results of the study show the possibility of maintaining a consistently high level of forest use, taking into account the species change and the implementation of forestry measures complex. For the forest management units of the south part of the Arkhangelsk region, the predicted amount of forest use is lower than the officially accepted volumes, for the forestry’s of the northern part, there is an excess of the allowable cutting volume, for the central part it practically coincides. The implementation of an intensive model for the use and reproduction of forests in the region is one of the indicators of the likely application of one of the optimal multivariate forecast scenarios.
About the Authors
S. V. Koptev
Northern Research Institute of Forestry; Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
KOPTEV Sergey V. – DSc (Agriculture), Leading Researcher; Head of Silviculture and Forest Management Department
193002. Severnaya Dvina Emb. 17. Arkhangelsk
Researcher ID: ABD-5497-2021
S. V. Tretyakov
Northern Research Institute of Forestry; Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
TRETYAKOV Sergey V. – DSc (Agriculture), Leading Researcher; Professor, Professor of Silviculture and Forest Management Department
193002. Severnaya Dvina Emb. 17. Arkhangelsk
Researcher ID: ААЕ-3861-2021
A. S. Ilintsev
Northern Research Institute of Forestry; Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
ILINTSEV Aleksey S. – PhD (Agriculture), Senior Researcher; Associate Professor
163062. Nikitova str. 13. Arkhangelsk
Researcher ID: N-6286-2019
D. P. Drozhzhin
Northern Research Institute of Forestry
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
DROZHZHIN Dmitrij P. – PhD (Agriculture), Senior Researcher
163062. Nikitova str. 13. Arkhangelsk
Researcher ID: HHZ-8374-2022
I. G. Shamontyev
Northern Research Institute of Forestry; Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. L
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
SHAMONTEV Ivan G. – Research engineer; Post-graduate student at the Silviculture and Forest Management Department
193002. Severnaya Dvina Emb. 17. Arkhangelsk
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Review
For citations:
Koptev S.V., Tretyakov S.V., Ilintsev A.S., Drozhzhin D.P., Shamontyev I.G. Multivariant Scenarios for the Dynamics of Forest Use in the Arkhangelsk Region. Izvestia Sankt-Peterburgskoj lesotehniceskoj akademii. 2023;(246):191-205. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21266/2079-4304.2023.246.191-205
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