Modeling of seasonal dynamics of the pheromone traps catchability
https://doi.org/10.21266/2079-4304.2023.244.227-243
Abstract
The models describing the seasonal dynamics of the catchability of pheromone traps for the spongy moth Lymantria dispar (L.). are proposed. Records of the of the spongy moth populations catchability were carried out from 2011 to 2015 using milkcarton traps in the Khabarovsk Territory. The number of imagoes arriving to the traps was recorded at intervals of 2 to 7 days from mid-July to early September. To assess the impact of the weather, daily temperature data from the Khabarovsk weather station were used. A model of the flight dynamics of spongy moths’ males to pheromone traps is constructed. As variables of the proposed model, both the catch values and a number of the first differences in seasonal dynamics are used. The time series of the dynamics of moths catchability and the increase in catchability are considered as autoregressive series in which the current values of the model variables depend on k previous values. It is shown that the quality of the model and approximation to full-scale data is achieved when switching from a variable characterizing the dynamics of catchability to a variable characterizing the dynamics of the first difference in catchability. The paper considers the high-frequency characteristics of the series of seasonal dynamics of catchability, which turn out to be logarithmically linearly dependent on the catchability in the past and the current temperature of the medium. It is shown that to describe the seasonal dynamics of the series of the first differences in the catchability of pheromone traps for the spongy moth, an autoregression and distributed lag model can be used, linking the current increase in catchability with the increases in catchability in previous records and the current ambient temperature. The possibility of using the parameters of these models to assess the state of populations is discussed.
About the Authors
V. G. Soukhovolsky
Laboratory of Forest Zoology, V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
SOUKHOVOLSKY Vladislav G. – DSc (Biological), Professor (Ecol.), Leading scientific researcher
660036. Akademgorodok. 50/28. Krasnoyarsk
D. K. Kurenshikov
Institute of Water and Ecology Problems of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
KURENSHIKOV Dmitry K. – PhD (Biological), Principal Researcher, Lab of the animal ecology
680000, Dikopoltsev St. 56. Khabarovsk
T. M. Ovchinnikova
V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
OVCHINNIKOVA Tamara M. – PhD (Physics and Mathematics), Senior scientific researcher, Laboratory of Forest Zoology
660036. Akademgorodok. 50/28. Krasnoyarsk
A. V. Kovalev
Federal Research Center SB RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
KOVALEV Anton V. PhD (Technical), Senior scientific researcher
660036. Akademgorodok. 50. Krasnoyarsk
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Review
For citations:
Soukhovolsky V.G., Kurenshikov D.K., Ovchinnikova T.M., Kovalev A.V. Modeling of seasonal dynamics of the pheromone traps catchability. Izvestia Sankt-Peterburgskoj lesotehniceskoj akademii. 2023;(244):227-243. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21266/2079-4304.2023.244.227-243
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