Promising areas of modeling the structure of intraregional and interregional timber transportation flows in the context of Western sanctions pressure

The article is devoted to the analysis of promising areas for optimizing logistics chains in the timber industry, taking into account geopolitical, economic and environmental challenges. This information is especially relevant in the context of Western sanctions pressure on Russia. The aim of the work is to reorient the existing system of modeling the structure of intraregional and interregional forest transportation flows, with an increase in the resilience of the forest sector to changing external geopolitical conditions. Special attention is paid to the current state of the system of modeling transport and logistics chains of the forest complex. The features of traffic flow modeling are investigated, taking into account regional specifics and new geopolitical realities. The article considers the need to reorient timber export flows from traditional markets (EU) to new ones (China, India, Middle East countries), as well as prospects for the development of transport infrastructure and deep processing of wood. The paper presents an analysis of the Russian timber industry by federal districts, including data on the forest fund, harvesting volumes, export directions and key issues. Based on this analysis, the main disadvantages of existing models of forest transportation flows are highlighted, such as lack of flexibility, insufficient consideration of environmental restrictions and the dynamics of sanctions risks. The most probable and promising areas of model improvement are proposed, including the integration of GIS technologies, agent-based approaches, and the development of multimodal routes (rail, river, and sea). The recommendations of the article are aimed at increasing the sustainability of the timber industry through the acceleration of deep processing programs, the development of alternative logistics corridors and the coordination of interregional supplies. The study may be of interest to logging companies exporting and processing timber, as well as universities that train personnel in the timber industry.

1. ACMAP. Association of International Road Carriers. URL: https://asmap.ru. (accessed April 22, 2025). (In Russ.)

2. Cargo transportation. Russian Railways. URL: https://cargo.rzd.ru (accessed April 22, 2025). (In Russ.)

3. Dean D.J. Finding optimal routes for networks of harvest site access roads using GISbased techniques. Can. J. For. Res., 1997, vol. 27, pp. 11–22. DOI: 10.1139/x96-144.

4. Federal customs service. Customs statistics. URL: https://customs.gov.ru/statistic (accessed April 22, 2025). (In Russ.)

5. Federal Forestry Agency. URL: https://rosleshoz.gov.ru (accessed April 22, 2025). (In Russ.)

6. Gerasimova M.M., Medvedev S.O., Mokhirev A.P., Rukomoynikov K.P. Material flow optimization of a logging enterprise based on graph theory. Logistics and supply chain management, 2019, no. 6 (95), pp. 50-57. (In Russ.)

7. Gordeev R.V. Comparative advantages of Russian forest products on the global market. Forest Policy and Economics, 2020, vol. 119, art. no. 102286. DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102286.

8. Gordeev R.V., Pyzhev A.I. The timber industry in Russia under sanctions: Losses and opportunities. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2023, no. 4, pp. 45-66. DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-4-45-66. (In Russ.)

9. Gulin K.A., Dianov S.V., Alferyev D.A., Dianov D.S. Agent-based modeling methodology for the development of territorial logging systems. Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast, 2024, vol. 17, no. 6, pp. 184–203. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2024.6.96.10. (In Russ.)

10. Krupko A.M., Voronin I.A., Krupko N.S. The modeling of logging timber freights by combine transport network. Engineering Bulletin of the Don, 2013, no. 4 (27), p. 92.

11. Ministry of the Russian Federation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic. URL: https://minvr.gov.ru (accessed April 22, 2025).

12. Minpromtorg RF. URL: https://minpromtorg.gov.ru (accessed April 22, 2025). (In Russ.)

13. Mokhirev A.P., Dudin P.O. Use of simulation modeling in planning effective solutions for interregional forest transport flows. Forests of Russia: policy, industry, science, education: proceedings of the IX All-Russ. sci.-tech. conf. St. Petersburg, 2024, pp. 336–339. (In Russ.)

14. Mokhirev A.P., Rukomoynikov K.P. Modeling the structure of timber transport flows. Yoshkar-Ola: Volga State University of Technology, 2022. 396 p. (In Russ.)

15. Rigin V.A., Gulin K.A. Tools for building a simulation model of the regional timber complex based on the agent-based approach. Problems of Territory’s Development, 2019, no. 1 (99), pp. 56–70. DOI: 10.15838/ptd.2019.1.99.4. (In Russ.)

16. Rukomoynikov K.P., Mokhirev A.P. Validation of the Logging Operations Scheme through the Creation of Dynamical Model of the Enterprise Functioning. Lesnoy Zhurnal, 2019, no. 4, pp. 94–107. DOI: 10.17238/issn0536-1036.2019.4.94. (In Russ.)

17. Rukomoynikov K.P., Mokhirev A.P., Medvedev S.O., Derbeneva E.Yu. Some features of simulation of the wood removal process. Science and Business: Development Paths, 2020, no. 10 (112), pp. 104–107. (In Russ.)

18. Sushkov A.S., Burmistrova O.N., Pilnik Yu.N. Modeling of optimum formation of forest transport streams and placement of points of processing of wood. Construction and road machines, 2014, no. 8, pp. 54–55. (In Russ.)

19. Burmistrova O.N., Chernikov E.A., Pilnik Yu.N., Chemshikova Yu.M. To the question of improvement of transport freght traffics of forest products in the conditions of the intellectual transport systems. Lesnoy Zhurnal, 2018, vol. 8, no. 3 (31), pp. 131- 138. DOI: 10.12737/article_5b97a15c4ef7d3.26143418. (In Russ.)

20. Van Kooten G.C., Schmitz A. COVID-19 impacts on U.S. lumber markets. Forest Policy and Economics, 2022, vol. 135, art. no. 102665. DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102665.

21. Vanino Commercial Sea Port. URL: https://portvanino.ru (accessed April 22, 2025). (In Russ.)

22. Wunder S., Kaimowitz D., Jensen S., Feder S. Coronavirus, macroeconomy, and forests: What likely impacts? Forest Policy and Economics, 2021, vol. 131, art. no. 102536. DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102536.